Athletic - Projecting Week 1 Starters & Roster

[Jmble]

CINCINNATI — The latest roster churn is upon us. Free agency and the NFL Draft are about to reshape the Bengals.

Despite all the angst sure to be spilled over players not signed and moves wished to be made, the Bengals will mostly bask in the sunshine of continuity. Their entire coaching staff is returning and, if they want it, 21 of 25 starters from last year are still under contract.

Free agency won’t resemble that of the previous two seasons for the Bengals as they turn to allocating resources on their own players. The players plucked from other teams are expected to be complementary or in the second wave. This will not be adding Alex Cappa and Ted Karras before you even finish your Monday lunch as it was last season.

Eyes will turn to insurance at right tackle, potential pass rush depth and then the internal priorities of top free agents Vonn Bell, Hayden Hurst and Samaje Perine with writing on the wall that Germaine Pratt, Eli Apple and Jessie Bates will not be returning.

If Bell, Hurst and/or Perine don’t return, then external options will be on the table at safety, tight end and running back. Extensions will be explored, obviously, with Joe Burrow but also with Tee Higgins and Logan Wilson.

The draft will focus on long-term answers at premium positions like cornerback, defensive line, offensive tackle with an eye on short-term needs at tight end and running back in going for a title in 2023.

What does it all mean? Here’s my best projection of the 53-man roster on opening day for the Bengals.

I’ve included relevant free-agent signings, a six-man draft class (with one seventh-round pick traded for a running back) and analysis on the cuts and decisions made on the roster.

This includes starters and backups at each position with their age as of Week 1 and a thought on their status.

Quarterback
Starter

Joe Burrow (26)

Current contract: Final year rookie contract, fifth-year option deadline is May 1

Thought: The contract will come soon enough. He will be the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history. Not sure how long he will hold that title, but he will hold it.

Backup

Brandon Allen (31)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: Doubt the Bengals want to mess with the dynamic in QB room one iota, so expect Allen to return.

Analysis: This actually will be a tough call. The Bengals really like Jake Browning. They brought him up late in the year and made him inactive to pad his pockets with game checks. I’d expect a competition with Allen in camp.

Running back
Starter

Samaje Perine (27)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: Can Perine be the workhorse back for an entire season? They didn’t suffer much last year when he took over and his style fits. I think the Bengals bring him back on a similar contract ($2.5 million) as last year. But this would be temporary as they gauge the rookie’s progress.

Backups

Zach Charbonnet (22)

Current contract: Rookie, UCLA, second-round pick

Thought: When the Bengals need a running back of the future they go to the second round (Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill, Joe Mixon). They need one again and Charbonnet’s elusiveness, size and hands provide an ideal fit.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (24)

Current contract: Chiefs, final year rookie deal

Thought: Falling out of favor in Kansas City, one of Burrow’s best friends at LSU and former first-round pick would find an ideal landing spot in Cincinnati if he’s released.

Trayveon Williams (25)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: He’ll face a tough fight for his job in camp, but I think he holds on. Made an impression with solid runs and returns in spots last year.

Analysis: I don’t see the Joe Mixon situation working out, even if a restructure in the form of a pay cut is offered. The time has come for a clean cut and I think it happens. After that, the focus moves to employ younger running backs capable of thriving as pass catchers as well as powering downhill without hesitation.

Wide receiver
Starters

Ja’Marr Chase (23)

Current contact: Fifth-year option would keep him through 2025

Thought: Keep an eye on Justin Jefferson’s extension with the Vikings this year. That’s the floor for a Chase extension in 2024.

Tee Higgins (24)

Current contract: Final year rookie deal

Thought: The Bengals will try to make an extension work, but my gut says it doesn’t happen this season and he ends up with a franchise tag this time next year. Either way, he will ball out in 2023.

Tyler Boyd (28)

Current contract: Free agent after this season

Thought: One last season for Boyd in Cincinnati. There’s a good chance his heir apparent is drafted, but trying to win a title this year means keeping Boyd in the mix despite his $10.3 million cap number.

Backups

Jayden Reed (23)

Current contract: Rookie, Michigan State, third-round pick

Thought: Future at the slot and an instant threat as a top young returner. Reed would check numerous important boxes for this team.

Trenton Irwin (27)

Current contract: Free agent after this season

Thought: Trust of Burrow might be the most valuable commodity in the building and Irwin owns it. He’ll stick.

Stanley Morgan (27)

Current contract: Free agent after this season

Thought: Too valuable on special teams and in the locker room to let go. Offers all the dirty work and intangibles this staff loves. Also owns stock in the trust of Burrow department.

Analysis: One more ride with the big three then dynamics change among this incredible trio. They couldn’t live the life of luxury forever, but no reason to worry about 2024 when they are poised to wreak the league again in 2023. But, the theme of the next two months at this position will be planting seeds of the future. They don’t want to be left scrambling next year so the draft offers an ideal opportunity to find the next playmaker.

Tight end
Starter

Hayden Hurst (30)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: Among most fascinating Bengals free agents. The team really likes what he provided last year, but a major raise or multi-year deal would be a surprise. His return depends on the suppression of the tight end market due to the deep draft class.

Backups

Josh Whyle (24)

Current contract: Rookie, Cincinnati, fourth-round pick

Thought: A mid-round tight end from UC with traits to develop into a playmaker? Not saying Whyle will become Travis Kelce, but the Bengals will have great feel for the character and potential, which both check out well. Just need to be willing to bet on health.

Drew Sample (27)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: A nice player with experience to keep in a reserve role. Doubt there will be a large market, but the Bengals always liked his versatile skill set.

Mitchell Wilcox (26)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: Earned it the hard way the last two seasons and increased trust on both special teams and filling in at tight end. Should be an easy re-sign.

Analysis: Probably the toughest offensive position to predict because of the unknown of the tight end free agent market against the ridiculously deep draft. The Bengals could go any number of directions but they will be adding one of these quality rookie tight ends. Just a matter of which draft tier.

Offensive line
Starter

LT Jonah Williams (26)

Current contract: Fifth-year option, free agent after the season

Thought: Leader in the clubhouse to be starting left tackle next year, but the reluctance of anyone to say that directly raises eyebrows. Needs to come back healthy from knee surgery.

LG Cordell Volson (25)

Current contract: Free agent after 2025 season

Thought: Played above draft slot expectations and set the foundation as a 10-year starter in this league if he can take a reasonable jump in Year 2.

C Ted Karras (30)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: If he ran for mayor of Cincinnati tomorrow, he would win in a landslide.

RG Alex Cappa (28)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: Offensive line coach Frank Pollack said Cappa would have played in the Super Bowl after his ankle injury. If he was healthy enough to play in the conference championship, the Bengals play in the Super Bowl. Full stop.

RT Jermaine Eluemunor (28)

Current contract: Free agent, Raiders last year

Thought: Played effectively as right tackle for the Raiders last year after bouncing around the league and up-and-down play. Could step in as stopgap starter on right side immediately for a bargain price considering the position.

Backups

OT La’el Collins (30)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: The Bengals want to give Collins every chance to prove he can come back fully healthy from the ACL and back. They are in no rush to make a move. Coming off back-to-back seasons where the starting RT couldn’t finish the year, it’s easy to see why they are reluctant to cut him despite injury/age/financial reasons. That could require a stint on PUP to start the year, if necessary.

OL Jackson Carman (23)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024

Thought: The two games at left tackle in the postseason might have saved Carman’s Bengals’ career. There’s renewed hope he could still find a role. He’ll be given a shot to prove he could finally make good on his notable physical skills at every spot on the line outside center.

OL Nick Saldiveri (23)

Current contract: Rookie, Old Dominion, fifth-round pick

Thought: A versatile player with upside from a small school. He could offer the ability to ascend in a year or two at either guard or tackle. What you would expect out of a Day 3 OL pick.

OL Trey Hill (23)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: Still yet to see much of Hill in the regular season, but the coaches liked what they saw in preseason the last two years. He’ll still need to fight for his spot in camp.

Analysis: The tackles will be tough to figure out, but a signing like Eluemunor would work for a few reasons. His play with the Raiders last year offers confidence if he’s the starter at the beginning of the season. Also, he offers insurance if the draft doesn’t fall their way at tackle with the 28th pick. You then can give time for Collins to get fully healthy if necessary. If they find a match at tackle, it opens up the ability to move on and save the cap hit closer to the start of the season. A lot of variables still out there, free agency looks to be about a more comfortable worst-case scenario.

Defensive line
Starters

DE Trey Hendrickson (28)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: One of the biggest bargain contracts in the NFL. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well with Hendrickson now despite being the second-largest cap hit on the team, but the Bengals going in early on his ascension paid off in extreme production and roster value.

DE Sam Hubbard (28)

Current contract: Signed through 2025 season

Thought: Heart and soul, central core of the team leadership. Defense’s Joe Burrow.

DT D.J. Reader (29)

Current contract: Free agent after this season

Thought: Another heart and soul of the team player. I don’t know if Reader would want it, but the Bengals should be interested in adding a year or two to his contract in August. Will be curious to watch the draft and see if anybody of his size comes off the board as a potential replacement should he leave in free agency next year.

3T B.J. Hill (28)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024

Thought: Hill played well, but like most interior defenders, would be helped with fewer snaps. Ranked fourth among all interior defenders in snap percentage (78.8). He needs another player to keep him fresh and not overextend him, which happened at times last season.

Backups

Joseph Ossai (23)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: Ossai isn’t the type to be defined by one mistake, but is the type to be motivated by it. Feels like a breakout year is incoming.

Cam Sample (23)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: Solid depth player the staff was thankful to have around throughout last season, even if his stat sheet doesn’t pop.

A’Shawn Robinson (28)

Current contract: Free agent, Rams last season

Thought: Robinson ranks as one of the top run defenders in the NFL, but lost last year with a torn meniscus. He would make a welcome addition at a second-wave, reasonable price in free agency.

Matt Ioannidis (29)

Current contract: Free agent, Panthers last season

Thought: Bengals had interest last year and he was productive for Carolina. He’s never played a playoff game in seven NFL seasons. Still has juice left at three-technique. The exact type of smaller, second-wave signing that would make sense.

Zach Carter (24)

Current contract: Signed through 2025 season

Thought: Bulked up and played particularly well against the run. Can he bring enough in the pass rush to carve out a larger role? That was the disappointing side of his rookie year.

Jeff Gunter (24)

Current contract: Signed through 2025 season

Thought: Made an impression last preseason. Needs to make a bigger one this year to hang on.

Analysis: The interior depth will need new pieces. That could come from the middle rounds of the draft or a few veterans who still have a year or two of production left hanging on to play in big games. Either way, help beyond the front four will be a priority, particularly on the interior. It wouldn’t be surprising to see another young edge tossed into the backup battle in the draft.

Linebacker
Starters

Logan Wilson (27)

Current contract: Final year of rookie deal, extension-eligible

Thought: The Bengals want to do a reasonable extension with Wilson. He’s a young, productive, core player and in this projection they’ll say goodbye to Germaine Pratt. Will Wilson want another year to hit the market on a high or take the security? It’ll be an important question he needs to answer by training camp.

Akeem Davis-Gaither (25)

Current contract: Final year of rookie deal

Thought: Biggest year of his professional life. Expect the Bengals to give him his chance to earn the starting job. What he does with it could be worth millions.

Backups

Markus Bailey (26)

Current contract: Final year of rookie deal

Thought: Solid special teamer and could see increased role with expected departure of Pratt. Next man up in his contract year.

Joe Bachie (25)

Current contract: Signed one-year deal Thursday

Thought: Bengals didn’t skip a beat when he had to fill in, now fully healthy, provides comfortable depth and special teams impact.

Daiyan Henley (23)

Current contract: Rookie, Washington State, sixth-round pick

Thought: A late-round pick will likely enter this room with hopes of nailing down depth, special teams asset or potential development into more.

Analysis: The Bengals really like where this room is at. It doesn’t feel like Pratt would return for a team that doesn’t like to pile premium assets or money into the position. Just keep churning the next generation while trying to hook up Wilson for the long haul.

Cornerback
Starters

Chidobe Awuzie (28)

Current contract: Free agent after this season

Thought: To think the Bengals defense played as well as it did last year without Awuzie is one of the game-changers of the season. You never know with knee injuries at a position so reliant on reaction and speed, but I’m betting on Awuzie being back to himself next year.

Cam Taylor-Britt (23)

Current contract: Free agent after 2025 season

Thought: If the development shown over the second half of the season continues into his second year, the Bengals could make argument for best trio of corners in the league.

Mike Hilton (29)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024 season

Thought: Coaches openly called him the best slot corner in the NFL last year. Hard to argue against.

Backups

Deonte Banks (22)

Current contract: Rookie, Maryland, first-round pick

Thought: He might have worked his way up into the mid-first round at the combine, but he would ideally fit the Bengals’ profile at corner. He’s physical, long, athletic and this front office loves investing early in the position. If there, he’d be a steal.

Jalen Davis (27)

Current contract: Signed two-year deal Thursday

Thought: Head coach Zac Taylor called Davis one of the 32 best slots in the league this year. He’s a solid backup for one of the best. At one point all Davis wanted was to be on the same team two years in a row — he’s now signed up for five straight in Cincinnati.

Tre Flowers (28)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: Will have to fight for his spot, but inevitably, his work covering tight ends will always keep him as an option at the back of the roster.

Analysis: Eli Apple won’t be back as the Bengals look to find a draft pick to develop into the future at CB4. Recreating what they did with CTB last year will be a priority of the draft. It’s hard to know how it will fall and they aren’t stuck if it doesn’t, but it would be smart to go into next year able to turn the position into two rookie contracts to offset the roster value lost in paying the quarterback and receiver groups.

Safety
Starters

Dax Hill (22)

Current contract: Free agent after 2025

Thought: A frustrating year for Hill having to mostly watch and learn three different positions in one season. That time is over now. He was drafted as the safety of the future and can assume the role now.

Vonn Bell (28)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: The key swing piece in free agency. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo stated he didn’t want to think about the “dark day” if he lost both Jessie Bates and Bell. He has more value in Cincinnati, as a two-time captain, than anywhere else. Will his deal reflect that or will another side swoop in with more years and guarantees? I’ll say he stays, but the feelings aren’t as good as they once were.

Backups

Tycen Anderson (24)

Current contract: Free agent after 2025 season

Thought: Spent all of the year stashed on injured reserve. Still optimism about what he can be, just need to see it in the preseason.

Mike Thomas (33)

Current contract: Free agent

Thought: A special teams captain and one of the true leaders of the locker room. An important voice to keep around if he doesn’t want to move on to his bright future after football with the NFLPA.

Analysis: There’s a real scenario where the Bengals make a heavy lean on Hill to take over not only for his first year as a starter, but as a leader among the safeties. If Cincinnati can’t bring back Bell and Bates, the 2022 first-round pick will be thrust to the cerebral center of one of the league’s most complicated defenses.

Specialists
K Evan McPherson (24)

Current contract: Free agent after 2024

Thought: McPherson endured his rough patches in 2022, but inevitably, he’s still 19 of 19 on postseason field goals with almost mythical leg strength.

LS Cal Adomitis (25)

Current contract: Recently re-signed, exclusive rights free agent after this season

Thought: Did the job to the point the Bengals brought him back and are saying goodbye to longtime long snapper and legendary personality Clark Harris.

P Michael Turk (25)

Current contract: Rookie, undrafted free agent, Oklahoma

Thought: The Drue Chrisman era ended the moment his punt to Skyy Moore buzzed low and down the middle of the field in the AFC Championship Game. Chrisman will be in an uphill position battle against whomever shows up. And somebody is showing up.

[Joe Bananas]

Banks, Charbonnet, Wylie

Not bad, not bad at all.

Don't know anything about the WR Reed from Mich St