2022 Draft Chatter

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Bengals1
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by Bengals1 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:54 pm

MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:48 pm
Bengals1 wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:27 pm
MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:08 pm
Why not? I think this is wrong think, the player we pick is literally the 31st best player coming out in this draft. There's no reason whatsoever that he shouldn't be considered a starter!
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4256 Hits
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by 4256 Hits » Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:22 pm

Other than CB what position could they pick that would be a starter on this team? Slight change at guard, LB or TE. Talent level get at 31 is not the same as top 10 pick we are used to. Sure it would be great to find an immediate starter but far from given. Below is an article I found on 31st picks before last years draft. A real mixed bag with more dudes than studs.


2020: Minnesota Vikings - TCU CB Jeff Gladney
Gladney looks like the latest failed pick at No. 31 after he was recently arrested over allegations of assault and was charged with a third-degree felony.

2019: Atlanta Falcons - Washington OT Kaleb McGary
The most solid offensive tackle prospect to come out of pick No. 31. He has started 29 games over the past two seasons and has the makings of a franchise left tackle.

2018: New England Patriots - Georgia RB Sony Michel
A Super Bowl LII hero for the Patriots, Michel has only started 28 regular season games since he was drafted in 2018.

2017: San Francisco 49ers - Alabama LB Reuben Foster
Off-field and injury issues have plagued Foster's career so far.

2016: Seattle Seahawks - Texas A&M OT Germain Ifedi
Ifedi played all over the offensive line with the Seahawks. He's recently settled in nicely as the starting RG for the Chicago Bears.

2015: New Orleans Saints - Clemson LB Stephone Anthony
Anthony lasted just two seasons with Saints before he was traded to the Dolphins for a fifth-round draft pick. He's currently a free agent.

2014: Denver Broncos - Ohio State CB Bradley Roby
It was easy to fall in love with the speed and traits with Roby. He became a Super Bowl champion in Super Bowl 50, but has really failed to become a standout player in the league.

2013: Dallas Cowboys - Wisconsin C Travis Frederick
Frederick was a perennial Pro Bowler. In 2018, he was diagnosed with Guillain–Barré syndrome. He managed to come back for the 2019 season and earned a fifth Pro Bowl selection before retiring in 2020.

2012: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Boise St. RB Doug Martin
Apart from a standout rookie season and a 2015 season with a First-Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection, Martin didn't do much in his career. He hasn't played since 2018.

2011: Pittsburgh Steelers - Ohio St. DE Cam Heyward
Heyward has spent the last 10 seasons with the Steelers. He's really impressed over the past four seasons, earning two First-Team All-Pro selections and four Pro Bowl selections during that span.

2010: Indianapolis Colts - TCU DE Jerry Hughes
Hughes didn't accomplish much in Indianapolis, but he really found himself a home playing with the Buffalo Bills. He has 111 starts and 51 sacks with the Bills over the past eight seasons.

2009: Arizona Cardinals - Ohio St. RB Beanie Wells
Wells played just four seasons in the NFL. A torn Achilles ahead of the 2013 season cut his career short.

2008: New York Giants - Miami (FL) DB Kenny Phillips
Phillips played just seven seasons in the league, becoming a Super Bowl champion against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.

2007: Chicago Bears - Miami (FL) TE Greg Olsen
Olsen announced his retirement after the 2020 season after playing 14 years in the league. He's a three-time pro bowler and became the first tight end to ever record three consecutive 1000-yard receiving seasons.

2006: Seattle Seahawks - Miami (FL) DB Kelly Jennings

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Bengals1
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by Bengals1 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:51 pm

4256 Hits wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:22 pm
Other than CB what position could they pick that would be a starter on this team? Slight change at guard, LB or TE. Talent level get at 31 is not the same as top 10 pick we are used to. Sure it would be great to find an immediate starter but far from given.
Allow me to clarify. By "starter" I did not mean to imply a day one starter. Rather a player at a position of weakness where he can come in at some point during his initial season and begin to start for us. Someone who can contribute meaningful minutes his rookie season. Not someone who's going to be a bench warmer almost his entire first season because we've already got solid starters at that position.

A Tyler Linderbaum for instance, could conceivably come in and spell our new center should he get banged up at some point. A new CB could be used as a Nickle or Dime back almost immediately. That sort of thing.

Capisce...?
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Scooper
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by Scooper » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:33 am

A first rounder should absolutely play meaningful minutes. There should be some contribution and at least the beginning of real development. But yeah, the difference in day one expectations from where we usually draft and the 31st pick is significant.

MeatHeadbengal
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by MeatHeadbengal » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:39 am

Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:33 am
A first rounder should absolutely play meaningful minutes. There should be some contribution and at least the beginning of real development. But yeah, the difference in day one expectations from where we usually draft and the 31st pick is significant.
It appears to me you are just lowering your standards to make sure you don't get disappointed. I get that we've had 2 fantastic franchise changing drafts in a row, the odds of us doing it again this draft are slim to none. However from all accounts this draft is very deep except for a few positions QB being one of them therefore the sexy picks might not be there. With that being said there is no reason our 31st pick should not come in and be a day one start and make an impact. Top 10 no but from what I'm reading everywhere it's a talented draft and deep, we should get a day one starter that makes an impact.

4256 Hits
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by 4256 Hits » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:01 am

Bengals1 wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:51 pm
4256 Hits wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:22 pm
Other than CB what position could they pick that would be a starter on this team? Slight change at guard, LB or TE. Talent level get at 31 is not the same as top 10 pick we are used to. Sure it would be great to find an immediate starter but far from given.
Allow me to clarify. By "starter" I did not mean to imply a day one starter. Rather a player at a position of weakness where he can come in at some point during his initial season and begin to start for us. Someone who can contribute meaningful minutes his rookie season. Not someone who's going to be a bench warmer almost his entire first season because we've already got solid starters at that position.

A Tyler Linderbaum for instance, could conceivably come in and spell our new center should he get banged up at some point. A new CB could be used as a Nickle or Dime back almost immediately. That sort of thing.

Capisce...?
I agree with this expectation.

Scooper
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:25 pm

Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by Scooper » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:22 am

MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:39 am
Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:33 am
A first rounder should absolutely play meaningful minutes. There should be some contribution and at least the beginning of real development. But yeah, the difference in day one expectations from where we usually draft and the 31st pick is significant.
It appears to me you are just lowering your standards to make sure you don't get disappointed. I get that we've had 2 fantastic franchise changing drafts in a row, the odds of us doing it again this draft are slim to none. However from all accounts this draft is very deep except for a few positions QB being one of them therefore the sexy picks might not be there. With that being said there is no reason our 31st pick should not come in and be a day one start and make an impact. Top 10 no but from what I'm reading everywhere it's a talented draft and deep, we should get a day one starter that makes an impact.
No, I'm not lowering anything. I'm looking at actual evidence to set expectations versus some pie in the sky expectations from fans. Look at the list from 4256 of the 31st pick. I'm even adding Oweh from last year to pad the success numbers. He was not a day one starter, but was a rotational contributor.

Of the last 15 31st picks, 6 made significant first year contributions and of those 6, a couple didn't do much beyond that first year.

That's about a 40% first year contributor success rate. Yes, I get this is deep draft and you hope for year one contributions, but as you can see from the last 15 years, NFL coaches, scouts and GMs clearly don't know as much about selecting talent as Meat on the internet.

MeatHeadbengal
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Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by MeatHeadbengal » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:01 am

Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:22 am
MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:39 am
Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:33 am
A first rounder should absolutely play meaningful minutes. There should be some contribution and at least the beginning of real development. But yeah, the difference in day one expectations from where we usually draft and the 31st pick is significant.
It appears to me you are just lowering your standards to make sure you don't get disappointed. I get that we've had 2 fantastic franchise changing drafts in a row, the odds of us doing it again this draft are slim to none. However from all accounts this draft is very deep except for a few positions QB being one of them therefore the sexy picks might not be there. With that being said there is no reason our 31st pick should not come in and be a day one start and make an impact. Top 10 no but from what I'm reading everywhere it's a talented draft and deep, we should get a day one starter that makes an impact.
No, I'm not lowering anything. I'm looking at actual evidence to set expectations versus some pie in the sky expectations from fans. Look at the list from 4256 of the 31st pick. I'm even adding Oweh from last year to pad the success numbers. He was not a day one starter, but was a rotational contributor.

Of the last 15 31st picks, 6 made significant first year contributions and of those 6, a couple didn't do much beyond that first year.

That's about a 40% first year contributor success rate. Yes, I get this is deep draft and you hope for year one contributions, but as you can see from the last 15 years, NFL coaches, scouts and GMs clearly don't know as much about selecting talent as Meat on the internet.
Scoop I'm not saying I know more then NFL coaches, scouts, GM's ect.. however I find it silly to think we sit here and act like we can't find a day 1 starter at 31. I think of drafts not that long ago when we find guys like Higgins, Boyd, Dunlap, Bates all in the second round whos extremely talented, but hey keep those sarcastic retorts coming. There will be talent there at 31, is it franchise changing talent like Burrow or Chase, more often then not no but still a quality start should be expected.

MeatHeadbengal
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Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by MeatHeadbengal » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:04 am

Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:22 am
MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:39 am
Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:33 am
A first rounder should absolutely play meaningful minutes. There should be some contribution and at least the beginning of real development. But yeah, the difference in day one expectations from where we usually draft and the 31st pick is significant.
It appears to me you are just lowering your standards to make sure you don't get disappointed. I get that we've had 2 fantastic franchise changing drafts in a row, the odds of us doing it again this draft are slim to none. However from all accounts this draft is very deep except for a few positions QB being one of them therefore the sexy picks might not be there. With that being said there is no reason our 31st pick should not come in and be a day one start and make an impact. Top 10 no but from what I'm reading everywhere it's a talented draft and deep, we should get a day one starter that makes an impact.
No, I'm not lowering anything. I'm looking at actual evidence to set expectations versus some pie in the sky expectations from fans. Look at the list from 4256 of the 31st pick. I'm even adding Oweh from last year to pad the success numbers. He was not a day one starter, but was a rotational contributor.

Of the last 15 31st picks, 6 made significant first year contributions and of those 6, a couple didn't do much beyond that first year.

That's about a 40% first year contributor success rate. Yes, I get this is deep draft and you hope for year one contributions, but as you can see from the last 15 years, NFL coaches, scouts and GMs clearly don't know as much about selecting talent as Meat on the internet.
I would also like to add that I think a lot of the picks success has to do with the teams culture, that's why you don't see many busts from teams like the Pats, or Steelers. With that being said I think we're developing that type of culture here and there's no reason to expect a starter at 31.

Scooper
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:25 pm

Re: 2022 Draft Chatter

Post by Scooper » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:26 am

MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:01 am
Scooper wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:22 am
MeatHeadbengal wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:39 am


It appears to me you are just lowering your standards to make sure you don't get disappointed. I get that we've had 2 fantastic franchise changing drafts in a row, the odds of us doing it again this draft are slim to none. However from all accounts this draft is very deep except for a few positions QB being one of them therefore the sexy picks might not be there. With that being said there is no reason our 31st pick should not come in and be a day one start and make an impact. Top 10 no but from what I'm reading everywhere it's a talented draft and deep, we should get a day one starter that makes an impact.
No, I'm not lowering anything. I'm looking at actual evidence to set expectations versus some pie in the sky expectations from fans. Look at the list from 4256 of the 31st pick. I'm even adding Oweh from last year to pad the success numbers. He was not a day one starter, but was a rotational contributor.

Of the last 15 31st picks, 6 made significant first year contributions and of those 6, a couple didn't do much beyond that first year.

That's about a 40% first year contributor success rate. Yes, I get this is deep draft and you hope for year one contributions, but as you can see from the last 15 years, NFL coaches, scouts and GMs clearly don't know as much about selecting talent as Meat on the internet.
Scoop I'm not saying I know more then NFL coaches, scouts, GM's ect.. however I find it silly to think we sit here and act like we can't find a day 1 starter at 31. I think of drafts not that long ago when we find guys like Higgins, Boyd, Dunlap, Bates all in the second round whos extremely talented, but hey keep those sarcastic retorts coming. There will be talent there at 31, is it franchise changing talent like Burrow or Chase, more often then not no but still a quality start should be expected.
To be clear, I'm not saying you don't try to find a starter in the first round. I'm saying based on the NFL track record, you can't judge that pick soley on whether or not they are a day one contributor. Law of averages says they won't be and you shouldn't be shocked if that's how it plays out. Less than half pick 31s are day one starters. And teams picking there are usually successful teams with a good track record on personnel. That's just the difference in talent between top 10 players and the next 40.

Your point about the others is valid. The Bengals are great at finding guys in rounds 2-5, or so. I almost wonder if their smaller staff doesn't help there. They trust the tape and don't overthink things, not to mention fewer voices in the room to muddy the waters, so to speak.

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