I always enjoy reading these.
We discussed doing a season-ending Whip when all four AFC North teams were done playing. The Bengals made us wait a while, so let’s start with them. After winning the North and reaching the Super Bowl, how much distance have the Bengals opened on the rest of the division?
Jay Morrison (Bengals): A crack? Maybe a crease? Even with a division title and a run to the Super Bowl, I don’t view the Bengals as a team that has created great separation from the rest of the division. They had a fortunate — and some would say overdue — year health-wise and played a last-place schedule. Here comes a first-place schedule and a whole lot of teams bent on revenge in 2022. The Bengals are the favorite to win the division only because someone has to be. I think the AFC North will be wide open in 2022, with any of the four teams capable of winning it or finishing last. If the Bengals can add key pieces to the offensive line in free agency, they’ll create a little more distance, at least in terms of perception. But it won’t take much for the Ravens, Browns or Steelers to catch up.
Mark Kaboly (Steelers): There is a little space; I’m not going to deny that. But it’s also space that can shrink in a hurry. Let’s face it: The Bengals were blessed with superior health last season, which isn’t something the other teams in the North can say. If the Bengals don’t do their due diligence this offseason and address the offensive line with more than just a draft pick, the division is wide open, even if the Steelers and Browns don’t have much in the way of a quarterback. If the Bengals can score a quality offensive lineman or two in free agency, they are primed to be on top of the division for the near future. But is Mike Brown willing to do that? Sure, he did it last year on the other side of the ball, but to get better, they have to fix the line, and drafting 31st isn’t going to do that. To summarize, it’s up to the Bengals if that gap closes or widens.
Zac Jackson (Browns): The Bengals are good at some of the most important positions. That they’re also young at some of those spots makes them scary. But I hesitate to say there’s a significant gap from 1-2 or even 1-4. The division has star power, established franchises and three teams that have won at least one playoff game in the past 13 months. Joe Burrow with an improved offensive line could lead the Bengals on a sustained run, but I could also just as easily see three teams still alive in the division race with two weeks remaining next season.
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): There’s no debating the Bengals are the team to beat and will be significant favorites to win the North in 2022. They’ve earned that. They have a good roster led by a quarterback who is already a star and resources to attack their needs, and they’ve rid themselves of the baggage from years of losing. But we need to be careful about making sweeping proclamations about the future. I remember hearing and contributing to the narrative that the Ravens would run the North for the foreseeable future after they went 14-2 in 2019 behind an MVP quarterback and an ascending offense. In two seasons since, they are 5-7 in divisional games with one playoff win. I’m not saying that will happen to the Bengals, but it’s hard to stay on top, and it seems unlikely they’ll maintain the same injury luck as they had in 2021. For now, it’s fair to say they’ve created clear separation, but it can close quickly. The Steelers and Ravens are strong organizations, and the Browns still boast a nice talent base and a forward-thinking front office.
The NFL Scouting Combine starts a week from Monday. What position will your team be most focused on in Indianapolis?
Morrison: It’s a three-way tie among tackle, guard and center. The run to the Super Bowl didn’t mask the need for offensive line improvement; it cast a harsher glare on it. The Bengals are built to last with a young core of skill players on offense and a solid defense full of players who were proven winners before landing in Cincinnati. If they can come within 1:25 of winning it all with the offensive line they ran out there this year, imagine what they can do when Burrow isn’t being sacked 70 times. Then again, if the Bengals have proved one thing over the past decade, it’s that they are terrible at drafting offensive linemen. The fixes need to be immediate, so they’ll more likely be found in free agency. But the Bengals will be shooting their shot once again in the draft, hoping to find two or three quality picks they can develop.
Kaboly: When your starting quarterback has 10 starts in four years and your franchise signal caller for the past 18 years is getting on with his life’s work, you better be looking hard and long at that position at the combine. The Steelers already got a jump on that at last month’s Senior Bowl by sending head coach Mike Tomlin, general manager Kevin Colbert, offensive coordinator Matt Canada and quarterback coach Mike Sullivan to Mobile, Ala., to look at Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis and company. That was the first step. The combine will be the next. With the quarterback class a little down this year, it might be a process that results in nothing, but the Steelers sure seem motivated to vet this crop of quarterbacks. They will also look at the offensive line since they had one of the worst offensive lines in the league again last season. They could use a receiver, a corner and a safety as well, but for the first time in nearly two decades, they have to pay attention to the quarterbacks at this combine.
Jackson: Defensive line and wide receiver are 1a and 1b to the Browns, in any order. Fixing the passing game is a top priority, and the Browns will at least explore a quarterback change in the coming weeks, but it’s hard to see the Browns wanting a rookie quarterback (or thinking there’s a real answer available at No. 13 this year). The Browns will be adding to their defensive line and wide receiver groups in March and April, and in Indy, they’ll get a look at potential picks at Nos. 13 and 44.
Zrebiec: I’m sure the Ravens personnel staff, like everyone else in Indianapolis, will have a close eye on the offensive linemen. The Ravens need to come out of the draft with a tackle and perhaps even a starting center if Bradley Bozeman walks and Baltimore doesn’t replace him in free agency. But the edge-rush class will probably be the focus. Justin Houston and Pernell McPhee are free agents, and Tyus Bowser (Achilles) and Odafe Oweh (shoulder) had offseason surgeries, leaving a ton of questions about the team’s outside linebacker group. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has 17 edge rushers among his top 100 players, so there should be plenty of talent for the Ravens to evaluate in Indianapolis. With the No. 14 pick, the Ravens are in a good position to nab one of the draft’s better pass rushers.
Every team has obvious needs. Looking at draft picks, salary-cap space and perhaps even trade candidates, summarize the number of assets the team you cover has to fill its needs this offseason.
Morrison: How about “more than enough”? The Bengals had the most available cap space of any playoff team and the fifth most overall, and we don’t usually see a lot of Super Bowl rosters with too many free agents to keep. Most of the Bengals’ free agents were earning manageable salaries in 2021 and won’t be in line for huge increases. The lone exception is safety Jessie Bates, who will be receiving the franchise tag in short order, with negotiations on a long-term deal continuing toward the July deadline. Factoring in cap space and projected cuts, they should have north of $70 million to address the offensive line and get a No. 2 cornerback. They’ll also have eight picks to work with in the draft. All the pieces are in place to improve an already solid roster.
Kaboly: The Steelers found themselves in cap hell last year with the aftereffects of the pandemic and a season without fans in the stands. They were able to structure contracts so they aren’t tied to too many players past 2023, though. It was all by design. The Steelers have the cap space and can add much more to mold this team in any way they see fit. Right now, there are so many questions. The right side of the offensive line, backup running back, slot receiver, quarterback, defensive line, depth at outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and free safety can all be labeled as needs. Free agency will check a couple of those positions off the must-get list, but the Steelers have their work cut out for them. I’d start with the offensive line and then the defensive line because those were the two biggest issues a year ago.
Jackson: The Browns could end up completely remaking their quarterback, wide receiver and defensive line groups. To rank them purely in terms of need, a plan/answer at quarterback sets the tone for the rest of the offseason and probably helps determine what they’ll do at wide receiver and tight end. They need at least one starting defensive tackle and depth across the defensive line. With two extra draft picks and a fairly healthy cap situation, they have available resources to explore quarterback trades and bring back Jadeveon Clowney. There’s no real clarity on their cap situation until we know if they’ll trade for a veteran quarterback, but the Browns should have multiple chances and avenues to address their biggest needs in the coming months.
Zrebiec: All things considered, the Ravens are in OK shape. They have about $9 million of cap space, but that number will grow significantly before March 14 with a few cap cuts, some contract alterations and perhaps an extension or two. The Ravens won’t have enough cap flexibility to be huge spenders in free agency, but they don’t want to be that team anyway. They’ll have enough room to sign a few of their own free agents and add an outside free agent or two. Their primary means of adding talent will be the draft, and they’ll have at least 10 picks with which to work. Nine of those picks will be in the first four rounds. There’s no reason Eric DeCosta and company can’t come out of this draft with two Day 1 starters and a few other immediate contributors.
‘Tis the season for cap cuts. Who is the biggest name from the team you cover who could be let go in a cost-cutting move?
Morrison: Cornerback Trae Waynes is as good as gone. As the lone whiff in the back-to-back spending sprees in free agency, Waynes didn’t play in 2020 and was reduced to a backup and special-teams role this year. The Bengals paid him $30 million for 243 snaps ($123,000 per). Cutting him this offseason will clear another $11 million in cap space. Another candidate is center Trey Hopkins, who is due $7.1 million in the final year of his deal. But unlike Waynes, cutting Hopkins won’t necessarily mean cutting ties. The team has great respect and admiration for Hopkins after he worked his way back from a Week 17 ACL tear in 2020. He still was managing his recovery through the regular season, and his play suffered. But there is a definite path for the Bengals to bring him back on a cheaper deal if Hopkins is willing. If the Bengals draft a center, Hopkins would be an adequate bridge until the rookie is ready to start. And if/when the youngster takes over, there would be no better mentor than Hopkins.
Kaboly: For the first time in forever, the Steelers don’t have to cut anybody because of money. They’ll likely cut somebody because of the salary they make, but that would be by choice, not need. On top of that list has to be inside linebacker Joe Schobert. The Steelers acquired the Pro Bowl linebacker from the Jaguars for a little more than a case of beer. But that case of beer will cost them $10 million this year, which is substantial for a guy who didn’t start three of the last four games because the coaching staff felt Robert Spillane was better. The other guy to keep an eye on is Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt missed all of 2021 while dealing with a knee injury and the tragic death of his brother in a hit-and-run accident. The Steelers have alluded to not knowing whether Tuitt wants to keep playing, and they’ll find out soon enough. His potential retirement would save them $10 million but would also create a gaping hole on the defensive line.
Jackson: Jarvis Landry. Though a restructure is possible and the Browns might want Landry back, they’ll save around $15 million on their 2022 cap if they cut him. Strictly looking at the financial numbers, that’s a no-brainer. In looking at the Browns’ passing game, Landry’s departure would create another void.
Zrebiec: There was speculation that the Ravens would jettison veteran cornerback Marcus Peters, who is 29, coming off a major knee injury and counts $15.5 million against the cap in 2022. However, DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh have said Peters will be back. Veteran left tackle Alejandro Villanueva probably won’t be. If the 33-year-old doesn’t retire, the Ravens will likely move on and pick up $6 million in cap savings. The Ravens are hopeful tackles Ronnie Stanley and Ja’Wuan James will be ready to play next year, and they’ve already extended Patrick Mekari. Villaneuva’s $9.25 million cap number is too big for a player who struggled at times last year. Veteran cornerback Tavon Young could also be among the Ravens’ cost-cutting moves.
What do you see as the most interesting offseason storyline related to the AFC North? It can be team-specific or more general.
Morrison: As will be the case league-wide, the quarterback carousel is going to be interesting. The Browns and Steelers are capable of winning the division if they get the quarterback position right. The Steelers will be especially intriguing. The Browns go through this all the time, but this is a brand-new world for Tomlin and company. Do they draft their quarterback of the future or sign a stopgap? Will it be a straight dropback passer or someone who can make plays with his legs and open the offense? With so many options available, it’s going to be interesting to track.
Kaboly: I’m taking the layup and saying the quarterbacks. Can Burrow expand on his success? Will Lamar Jackson get extended and get back to his MVP level of play? Who will replace Ben Roethlisberger? And can Baker Mayfield get it together and show he’s a franchise quarterback? Come on, what is better than a division full of quarterback questions?
Jackson: Because two teams need quarterbacks, that’s the most important storyline. As far as the most interesting, it has to be the Bengals returning as AFC North champions but potentially not even being favored to win the division given the Ravens’ injuries from last season and that the Browns and Steelers could end up with upgrades at the most important position.
Zrebiec: I’m tempted to say the Roethlisberger succession plan in Pittsburgh, but I’ll instead follow Kaboly’s lead and focus on the quarterback situation around the division. How do the Steelers replace Roethlisberger, and do they believe Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins can be the answer? Are the Ravens and Jackson willing to let the quarterback play the season on his fifth-year option? Are the Browns committed to Mayfield or has that been lip service? And finally, to what lengths will the Bengals go to better protect Burrow? All are legitimate questions that will be answered over the next few months.
