From ESPN, Reasons for Optimism and Concern for Each Playoff team
I'm just posting the Bengals and the Raiders
4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Super Bowl odds: +1800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8%
Reason for hope: Quarterback Joe Burrow is coming in hot. He threw for a combined 971 yards in Weeks 16 and 17, leading the Bengals to wins over the Ravens and Chiefs. That was 3 yards less than the NFL record for yardage in a two-game span. For those who discounted his performance against the Ravens' injury-riddled defense, he followed it up by exposing the Chiefs' previously stout defense with 446 yards and four touchdowns. Burrow had the fourth-highest sack-per-dropback ratio in the NFL through Week 17 (8.6%), but in the playoffs, the difference between a big play and a punt can be a quarterback willing to hold the ball while his receivers work.
Reason for concern: Is coach Zac Taylor up to the challenge of playoff football? He has rightfully earned credit for the Bengals' worst-to-first turnaround in the AFC North this season, as well as bringing along Burrow and rookie wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase into becoming one of the NFL's most feared big-play duos. But some of his game-management decisions raise questions about the Bengals' chances to win a close playoff game. One that comes to mind: a timeout, followed by a delay-of-game penalty, as the Bengals scrambled to go for two points late in a loss to the Chargers. In an environment in which every move is magnified, Taylor's decisions will be closely scrutinized.
X factor: Joe Mixon, RB. With so much public discussion of the Bengals' offense falling on Burrow and Chase, it's worth remembering that Mixon accounted for 16 touchdowns in 16 games this season. (He missed the Week 18 matchup against the Browns after testing positive for COVID-19.) Only one player in Bengals history has scored more (Carl Pickens in 1995). Mixon's total included 13 TDs on the ground and three via receptions, and getting him to close out drives in the red zone will be one of the Bengals' keys to pulling off a playoff victory.
First-game outlook: vs. Raiders (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Jan. 15, on NBC). The Bengals beat the Raiders by 19 points on the road in Week 11, and it's worth noting that the Raiders' subsequent turnaround came mostly against some underwhelming opponents. The Bengals should be strong favorites in this game. They've put opposing quarterbacks under pressure at a rate of 30.3%, ninth best in the NFL and a significant threat to Raiders quarterback Derek Carr's jittery feet.
5. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7)
Super Bowl odds: +4000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 2%
Reason for hope: The Raiders won four consecutive games to end the regular season and qualify for the playoffs, along the way helping to derail the playoff chances of both the Colts (Week 17) and the Chargers (Week 18). To be fair, one of those wins came against a Browns team that was ravaged by COVID-19, and another was against the Broncos, who were in the midst of a four-game losing streak to end the season. But there is a value in grinding out victories to get into the playoffs, and the Raiders are riding it.
Reason for concern: You might not realize it, but quarterback Derek Carr -- in his eighth season -- has never appeared in a playoff game. He was injured and inactive for the Raiders' 2016 wild-card loss to the Texans. Generally speaking, a team is better off with a veteran quarterback than a young one in the playoffs. But Carr already has a tendency to fling the ball up for grabs when under duress, and it's worth noting that he set a career high for interceptions even before playing in his 17th game of the season.
X factor: Rich Bisaccia, interim coach. There is clearly something special about the way Bisaccia connects with his players and pushes them through adversity. The Raiders elevated Bisaccia under the most unusual circumstances -- former coach Jon Gruden departed after offensive emails he sent years ago were published by multiple media outlets -- and asked him to hold together a 5-2 team. He did that and then some. It's fair to worry if his game-management skills are sharpened enough for postseason play, but there's little doubt he'll have the Raiders ready to play.
First-game outlook: at Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Jan. 15, on NBC). The Raiders and Bengals were in a close game in their Week 11 matchup until the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to take a 32-13 victory. The Raiders did a great job of slowing down Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow, who threw for just 148 yards. That might be a tough feat to duplicate, however. Over the course of the season, the Raiders' defense ranked No. 22 in opponent QBR.
