Bengals Roster Projection

[Jmble]

The Athletic is on fire today with Paul Dehner Jr's roster projection.

CINCINNATI — The template for the Bengals’ offseason has been set. We laid out the cap space and offseason tasks in our choose-your-own-adventure spreadsheet last week. Many of you tried playing general manager and realized this won’t be quite as easy as it sounds when dreaming of free agents in your head.

The same can be said for every team with the challenges of this offseason — one that’s about to hit hyperdrive once the salary cap is officially set in the coming weeks.

Plans are coming into focus, though, certainly much more than when we went through this in December when the Bengals were officially eliminated from the playoffs in Miami.

So, now we take a more realistic view of predicting the decisions ahead and where the team’s two-deep roster will land come September.

This includes free-agent moves, a notable trade and predicting the entire draft class. So, yes, consider this mock draft 1.0 inside of roster projection 2.0.

Quarterback
• Starter: Joe Burrow
• Backup: Brandon Allen

Allen delivered enough confidence in his ability to step in and win a few games during his stint taking over for Burrow to return on an easily digestible backup deal. I doubt there will be many other suitors who come calling for Allen, but he holds the most value here. He’ll probably be had for $2 million to $3 million. The only other option would be to make an aggressive play for a veteran backup quarterback, but when you compare the other needs and what they could do with the $5 million they would save going this route, Allen should end up the guy behind Burrow.

Running back
• Starter: Joe Mixon
• Backups: Giovani Bernard, Khalil Herbert (fifth round, Virginia Tech), Semaje Perine

One of the most common moves during the mock offseason exercise was readers cutting Bernard. It makes sense on the surface. He’s a 29-year-old running back in the final year of his contract. Letting him go would add $4.1 million in cap space. He’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry over the past three years combined. He averaged 7.2 yards per reception, which ranks 20th of 24 RBs with at least 100 receptions the past three seasons. The Bengals love the captain’s leadership, impressive pass-blocking ability, savvy and intelligence to always be making the correct play. There’s extreme value in those attributes in this offense. For that reason, along with the club’s tendency to show loyalty to long-term veterans, Bernard stays. But this should be the year they draft his future replacement and find more juice out of the backfield. I project a back to them early in Day 3, in this case, Herbert out of Virginia Tech ranked as Dane Brugler’s No. 7 overall running back.

Tight end
• Starter: C.J. Uzomah
• Backups: Drew Sample, Cethan Carter, Kylen Granson (sixth round, Southern Methodist)

There’s a temptation to seek a homecoming with Kyle Rudolph, should he end up a cap casualty of the Vikings. The Elder High School product is 31, everything you want in the locker room and still a productive pro without a drop in the past two seasons. I just don’t see them offering enough playing time with Uzomah and Sample solid at the top of the rotation. They instead sift through the developmental prospects at the back of the draft, looking for a potential future replacement for Uzomah, who is a free agent after this season.

Offensive line
• Starters: LT Jonah Williams, LG Joe Thuney (UFA New England), C Billy Price/Trey Hopkins, RG Xavier Su’a-Filo, RT Rob Havenstein (trade with Rams for third-round pick).
• Backups: IOL Michael Jordan, IOL Price, OT Hakeem Adeniji, OT Fred Johnson

The big move of the offseason would be this trade for Havenstein. The 29-year-old starting right tackle becomes available as a byproduct of the cap mess the Rams find themselves in with the acquisition of Matt Stafford, Jared Goff’s dead money and large contracts for Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor knows Havenstein from coaching there, knows he’s a system fit, he’s still young and has two very affordable years left on his contract. This would seem to check all the boxes for the Bengals. Making it work means giving up a third-round pick. If you look at recent compensation for deals in this range, you find a few different comps, but a pick combination equal to something on Day 2 of the draft makes sense. The Rams can use picks and cap relief. Meanwhile, the affordable nature of Havenstein allows the Bengals to spend for Thuney at guard as he returns near his hometown of Dayton to bring stability in front of Burrow. The rest of the pieces fill down the line with a battle between Su’a-Filo and Jordan for the other guard spot. As soon as Hopkins is healthy from his ACL tear, he takes the job back from Price.

Wide receiver
• Starters: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Ja’Marr Chase (first round, Louisiana State)
• Backups: Auden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Alex Erickson

The Bengals go bold at the top of the draft and reunite Chase with his college quarterback. The explosiveness of their connection brings endless possibilities for the offense to strike fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators. This instantly becomes one of the top receiver groups in the league for Burrow to utilize, and if the line goes, as shown above, there are no limits. The Bengals don’t use any other draft picks on the position but do find a veteran minimum for speedster Goodwin, who appears on his way out in Philadelphia to give them the blazer in the bag if necessary. They will also be looking for a slot backup to challenge Erickson, but for now, I’m plotting the vet from Wisconsin to hold on.

Defensive line
• Starters: DE Carl Lawson, DE Sam Hubbard, DT D.J. Reader, DT Mike Daniels
• Backups: DT Levi Onwuzurike (second round, Washington), DT Josh Tupou, DT Renell Wren, DE Khalid Kareem, DE Payton Turner (fourth round, Houston), DE Chris Smith (UFA Las Vegas)

The most challenging part of the offseason, in my opinion, will be finding juice in the pass rush. The difference-makers are hard to find. One does not exist at the top of this draft. You have a hard time finding a quality three-technique in free agency, and I still see the Bengals moving on from Geno Atkins to utilize the $9.6 million in cap space. I have them tagging Lawson to keep him on the edge and bringing back Mike Daniels as support in the middle. They use their middle-round draft picks to try and unlock the next Atkins, Lawson, Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson they’ve made a habit of plucking in the mid-rounds. That means twitchy but raw Onwuzurike out of Washington then Turner at the top of the fourth round from Houston. A ton of pressure will be on those two to find an instant role and make an impact. One of the two working out might be enough to get back to respectability.

Linebackers
• Starters: Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt
• Backups: Akeem Davis-Gaither, Josh Bynes, Markus Bailey

One of the straightforward positions, the Bengals will rely on progression from the young group already in-house. They might have finally hit on a real one in Wilson, so he emerges as an every-down backer next to Pratt. Bynes returns on a cheap deal as leadership and run-stop assistance. They look for either Bailey or Davis-Gaither to enjoy a bump in their sophomore campaigns.

Cornerbacks
• Starters: Trae Waynes, Darius Phillips, Troy Hill (UFA L.A. Rams)
• Backups: Michael Davis (UFA L.A. Chargers), Kevin King (UFA Green Bay), Tony Brown

Here I have the Bengals choosing Lawson over William Jackson and hoping Waynes plays like the top corner they paid him to be. They are also betting on Phillips staying healthy, which is quite a risk, but might be one they have to take in order to use assets in protecting Burrow. A few shrewd free-agency signings could be the key to keeping this position group solid. Davis and perhaps another similar type of player with potential but needing more snaps would make sense. For now, Brown returns at the back of the cornerback group.

Safeties
• Starters: Jessie Bates III, Vonn Bell
• Backups: Brandon Wilson, Tre Norwood (seventh round, Oklahoma)

Pretty simple here. The Bengals love their safeties and will bring them back as a defensive foundation. The question will be re-signing Wilson. I don’t see teams spending a bunch of money for his kick-returning skills, as good as they are. So, he comes back and they use a draft pick and some UDFA spots looking for their next Clayton Fejedelem type with special teams value to round out the group.

Specialists
• Starters: P Kevin Huber, K Jose Borregales (rookie, Miami), LS Clark Harris

A placekicker competition with Austin Seibert will be a big part of training camp. The Bengals are looking for a reliable new kicker with Randy Bullock on the outs after an inconsistent 2020. Pick your rookie kicker of choice, depending on who is available as a UDFA. Borregales is one of the biggest names in this year’s draft at kicker, so I pluck him for now.

[MeatHeadbengal]

I've been vocal about my support for signing a FA RT and then drafting a guy like Chase, I think this is one of the best ideas for winning next year period. I think if they did this and with Burrow not having a Sophomore slump we'd be staring at playoffs and probably our first playoff win. We had a very potent offense last year, at times scoring on every drive in a half in some games. This would only make them more dangerous and progression at LB we'd have a competent enough defense to win some games. I'm not saying superbowl but I'd predict our first Playoff win with these moves and I'd be willing to bet on it! That being said we'd have to make similar moves to this and get a starting RT and sign a guy of Thuney's caliber.

[4256 Hits]

So they do basically nothing to improve their terrible defense. They have way more cap space available then what is spent here. That money needs to be spent on somebody that can put pressure on the QB.

[Exile]

So they do basically nothing to improve their terrible defense. They have way more cap space available then what is spent here. That money needs to be spent on somebody that can put pressure on the QB.

Yeah, they ABSOLUTELY need to do more than what we're seeing above, which is signing or tagging Lawson. An undrafted FA as our starting nickel corner?? No addition to our anemic pass rush? The offense is going to need to score 40 every game just to keep us in it.

[Jmble]

So they do basically nothing to improve their terrible defense. They have way more cap space available then what is spent here. That money needs to be spent on somebody that can put pressure on the QB.

Yeah, they ABSOLUTELY need to do more than what we're seeing above, which is signing or tagging Lawson. An undrafted FA as our starting nickel corner?? No addition to our anemic pass rush? The offense is going to need to score 40 every game just to keep us in it.

UFA is "Unrestricted Free Agent". Las Vegas is referring to The Raiders.

[skycruiser]

sign me up for all of this. dehner for GM.

agree i'd like to see a pass rusher added especially if WJ3 moves on, but that person doesn't exist at the top of the draft. bring back lawson on the tag and hope reader makes such an impact that the pass rush improves

[Exile]

So they do basically nothing to improve their terrible defense. They have way more cap space available then what is spent here. That money needs to be spent on somebody that can put pressure on the QB.

Yeah, they ABSOLUTELY need to do more than what we're seeing above, which is signing or tagging Lawson. An undrafted FA as our starting nickel corner?? No addition to our anemic pass rush? The offense is going to need to score 40 every game just to keep us in it.

UFA is "Unrestricted Free Agent". Las Vegas is referring to The Raiders.

Of course it does. I'm an idiot AND I hadn't had my coffee yet.

Troy Hill wouldn't be a terrible pickup there--he's started for the Rams, apparently played 3 games for the Bengals in 2015 (did not remember that!), but I don't think he'd solve our problems in the secondary. Not sure that Phillips is ready to start and Waynes, while his signing last season was encouraging, is a total unknown at this point. Michael Davis was also projected as a FA acquisition, and he's a 3-year starter for the Chargers. I guess these projected roster moves solidify the depth of the secondary, and it's not nearly as dire as I was thinking when I first saw it, but I'd still like to see us bring in a CB who projects as a solid #1--either bringing back WJIII or a similar caliber of player, rather than just guys who might be solid #3s, which is what Hill and Davis look like, at least at first glance.

[Jmble]

Yeah, they ABSOLUTELY need to do more than what we're seeing above, which is signing or tagging Lawson. An undrafted FA as our starting nickel corner?? No addition to our anemic pass rush? The offense is going to need to score 40 every game just to keep us in it.

UFA is "Unrestricted Free Agent". Las Vegas is referring to The Raiders.

Of course it does. I'm an idiot AND I hadn't had my coffee yet.

Troy Hill wouldn't be a terrible pickup there--he's started for the Rams, apparently played 3 games for the Bengals in 2015 (did not remember that!), but I don't think he'd solve our problems in the secondary. Not sure that Phillips is ready to start and Waynes, while his signing last season was encouraging, is a total unknown at this point. Michael Davis was also projected as a FA acquisition, and he's a 3-year starter for the Chargers. I guess these projected roster moves solidify the depth of the secondary, and it's not nearly as dire as I was thinking when I first saw it, but I'd still like to see us bring in a CB who projects as a solid #1--either bringing back WJIII or a similar caliber of player, rather than just guys who might be solid #3s, which is what Hill and Davis look like, at least at first glance.

Believe it or not, Troy Hill graded out at a 74.2 on PFF for 973 snaps in 2020. In 2019 he graded at 76.4 in 538 snaps.

Our highest graded CBs in 2020:

Darius Phillips 72.1 in 593 snaps
William Jackson 71.4 in 886 snaps
Mackensie Alexander - 60.4 in 642 snaps

He might not solve all of our problems long term but he seems like he could hold his own back there maybe allowing us to concentrate somewhere else in 2021 and worry about getting the next Bengals first round CB in the draft in 2022.

[Joe Bananas]

Imo, we are still extremely weak at LB. In thought that last year and I'm thinking the same thing this year if the roster does look similar to this.

[Mag]

This is the best case scenario. It would be nice to get more on defense. It's still possible. Remember lots of teams will be at or over the cap. Lots of good vets will sign cheap one year deals, due to cap. Should be able to add depth at CB and DE.

In regards to the comments at LB, I feel our young LBs progressed well last year. Both Pratt and Wilson look like they are developing into quality starters. Bynes add a solid vet presence, plus ADG and Bailey give quality depth.