Draft Talk - Cuz it's never too early...

[Bengals1]

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[Jmble]

Dehner's new mock of the Bengals picks.

Honestly, I'm more Sewell than Chase, but if the draft fell into place like this I wouldn't complain. Radunz is number 28 on PFF's Big Board. If he fell to the third round, project or not, I would be elated. To be fair, they do rank him a bit higher than other sites. Mel Kiper has Radunz at number 56 overall. I'm not going to pretend like I've watched any North Dakota State football, but I like what I've read about him, and this would be a case of drafting for depth on the O-Line rather than an immediate starter if they picked up Sewell in the first or Leatherwood in the second.

CINCINNATI — The debate between what to do with the fifth overall pick seems to change daily. Like walking outside in the morning to discover which way the wind is blowing or if the air smells like Skyline Chili or brewery vats.

Penei Sewell or Ja’Marr Chase or trade back? Sorry, Kyle Pitts stans, it’s not happening. Ideas and best-path narratives come and go as the never-ending draft debate season almost enters the month of the event.

The Bengals are a tough team to pinpoint and one that our exercises and reporting suggest could have all options on the table if quarterbacks go one through four for the first time in NFL history. The odds of that increased significantly on Friday when the Dolphins moved out of the third pick and San Francisco traded up. The 49ers are coming up for a quarterback of the future and that only leaves the Falcons decision on picking the last quarterback or also trading out of the spot to one of the remaining quarterback-needy teams (Denver, Carolina, New England) between the Bengals having their selection of the best non-QB in this draft.

If Atlanta opts to take a player, the Bengals phone likely starts ringing. In every other scenario, it’s the relentless debate in Bengals fans circles of Chase versus Sewell.

I’m among those out there changing my mind daily on how this falls because too often we find ourselves thinking about what our personal moves would be instead of focusing on the only thing that matters for somebody writing in this capacity and that is generating a projection for what the Bengals will actually do.

For me, those are two different things.

With my first official mock draft — I’ve sort of done one as part of roster projection — I have my official stance that, for the moment, I don’t plan on changing throughout draft season (but absolutely reserve the right to do so).

We are not introducing trades at this moment, that will come later, but obviously, the potential to move back and collect picks would be an enticing option. In the straight-pick scenario, free agency has turned the original concept of the draft in January on its head. They spent so much time, attention and money on the defensive side that this feels like a draft that will come out extremely lopsided toward offense.

I also think the lack of attention and effort directed toward the receiver position despite a gaping hole at the third spot suggests they know they are landing a quality receiver next month. The Bengals aren’t alone with such a philosophy as it served as the foundation for the cratering receiver market in free agency. But they are the only one picking fifth overall. Considering as much as we hear and know about the extreme depth of the offensive line in this draft, the analysis suggests the Bengals opt to take advantage of the strength of this draft at the top (receiver) and depth (offensive line) later to fill their two biggest needs in building around Joe Burrow.

That would not be my strategy. Why? I’m too concerned by the recent history of this team drafting offensive linemen. Not that the current people in place aren’t capable, but the reputation of the past seven years of misses precedes them. On the flip side, so does the positive reputation for plucking quality receivers and defensive linemen in later rounds. Fail-rate percentages rise significantly when you start swimming in the waters of the early second round. As opposed to breaking any tie at the top of the draft by investing in protection with a significantly higher-floor selection. Take the least risk at the position you’ve struggled to fix the most.

I don’t think that happens. Instead, the allure of potential stars at receiver for Burrow, particularly one the team knows it can expect the most out of since it’s connected directly to their prized quarterback, feels like where this discussion ends.

So, let’s mock.

First round (5 overall): Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Ja’Marr Chase. Tyler Boyd. Tee Higgins. Joe Mixon. Joe Burrow. Young, electric, versatile, under contract for at least the next three years and undeniably frightening for a defensive coordinator. The dream of those five growing up together to form one of the most dynamic skill groups in football ends up too tough for the front office to pass on, even if it means overlooking the top tier of the offensive line class. Riley Reiff buys them insurance and time at tackle, and they can spend the next couple of rounds attacking that issue with quality and quantity.

Meanwhile, you reunite Burrow with Chase, who broke every record imaginable in 2019 as the primary deep threat and overall playmaker on the dominant LSU offense. Chase averaged 21.2 yards per reception, for 1,780 total yards and 20 touchdowns, all from Burrow before opting out of 2020. The explosiveness he brings is viewed as the key that could unlock the entire offense. That might be right. They are risking the surest replenishment of the offensive line on that hope if this ends up the move.

Second round (38): Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
Here comes the immediate starter at guard for the season opener. A number of different options will be on the table at this point. And when you look historically at when the drop-off comes in finding effective rookie starters, you typically see that hit rate drop once moving outside the top 40. In this case, Leatherwood brings the ability to start at guard now and potentially move to the tackle position he occupied the past few years at Alabama in the future. He brings important positional flexibility in that way and why I pinpointed him out of the bucket of potential names in this zone of Dane Brugler’s Top 100 list (others include OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame; IOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama; OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas; OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State or maybe a player slotted for the first round who could fall into the early second). In a year of unpredictability in evaluation, I’d expect more than a few offensive line names to be available that Big Draft groupthink didn’t anticipate at this selection.

Third round (69): Dillon Radunz, OL, North Dakota State
Welcome back to an old Bengals strategy that served them well over many, many drafts: The double up. They’ve been known to take on major positional issues on the roster with two swings rather than one. It’s not a perfect strategy, of course (Cedric Ogbuehi/Jake Fisher) but often proves effective (Mo Sanu/Marvin Jones; Jordan Willis/Carl Lawson; Logan Wilson/Akeem Davis-Gaither) with even the second player selected sometimes evolving into the better pro.

In the case of Radunz, he’s still a project in some respects by virtue of the level of play he faced at NDSU and needs to fill out his frame. But he played well at the Senior Bowl and tested well at his pro day. In fact, he might move up draft boards to the point he’s not available here but for now, we’ll slot him in as the second offensive lineman taken in the quantity approach to fixing things up front for the short and long term.

Fourth round (111): Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State
The target in this spot might come down to what happens over the next week in free agency. If the Bengals fall short in landing an edge, then they probably look for that spot here. If they can’t find a second three-technique to rush the passer behind Larry Ogunjobi, then this is the move. It seems fitting that in the year they part ways with Geno Atkins they select another three-tech in the fourth round trying to replicate the magic.

Fifth round (149): Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio State
A running back with one of the first two picks of the third day felt like the move since the season ended. Not a conversation about the position has gone by this offseason where we haven’t written or discussed the perfect fit of a young back entering the equation as a dynamic depth piece behind Mixon. The recent news of teams inquiring about a trade for Giovani Bernard only solidifies the premise. The history of backs taken later in the draft turning out productive careers lends itself to this move, and the Bengals aren’t out much if it fails. Sermon would be a wide-zone, one-cut runner who would seem an ideal fit for offensive line coach Frank Pollack’s plan, and the potential was evident during his ridiculous run to the national championship game with the Buckeyes. And at this point, we have to think the Bengals are trying to field a team of all former Buckeyes players to either win over the Columbus market (good luck) or save Ohio State shipping costs on those alumni swag boxes.

Sixth round (190): Tre’ McKitty, TE, Georgia
Hunting for a tight end project late in the draft to fill the spot behind C.J. Uzomah and Drew Sample. Particularly one with the flexibility this staff loves out of this position. McKitty has shown the ability to both block and make plays in the passing game at different times. There’s a ton of raw talent there and development needed, but could see a fit as a late-round shot.

Sixth round (202): Shi Smith, slot WR, South Carolina
Maybe Smith’s pro day performance shoots him up boards, but the Bengals will need somebody to fill in the Alex Erickson role as a backup to Boyd in the slot. Smith also has experience returning kickoffs if services were needed in that area.

Seventh round (235): Jose Borregales, K, Miami
Oh yes, the positional crowd favorite. I have a hard time believing Austin Seibert will be the answer in the fall. And I also have a hard time believing the Bengals won’t get antsy entering the undrafted player free-for-all that they will land the kicker they truly want. Firing off the seventh-round pick to ensure they land who they view to be the best kicker in this draft (it might not be Borregales, but he’s a leading candidate) makes sense to find value in this selection.

[Jmble]

PFF's latest Mock Draft today...

They predict QB,QB,QB,QB before the Bengals pick.

Who do they predict with everybody on the board for the Bengals?

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS — TE KYLE PITTS, FLORIDA
While there is a chance a team is desperate enough to inquire about the Bengals’ pick at No. 5 in an attempt to secure Mac Jones, I expect there to be a calmer market for the former ‘Bama quarterback’s services. And if that is the case and the team’s phone isn’t ringing with trade-down offers, Cincinnati should sprint the card in for Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.

Pitts and former Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell are similar in that they’re both arguably the best prospects we’ve seen at their respective positions in five-plus years. You can’t go wrong with either player at No. 5 overall, but the bigger impact in the wins column (and Joe Burrow’s development) comes with adding Pitts as a weapon for the offense than securing Sewell's services as an upgrade over either former first-round pick Jonah Williams or newly signed veteran Riley Reiff.

Pitts can immediately be the Bengals’ top receiving option and a top-five tight end in the NFL as a rookie — he’s that good.

[Bengals1]

PFF's latest Mock Draft today...

They predict QB,QB,QB,QB before the Bengals pick.

Who do they predict with everybody on the board for the Bengals?

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS — TE KYLE PITTS, FLORIDA

More and more of the Cincinnati Sports Media I follow on-line and saying it WON'T be Pitts. I'd think they have a better insight into the teams thinking than some sports writer in LA or New York City....

[MeatHeadbengal]

PFF's latest Mock Draft today...

They predict QB,QB,QB,QB before the Bengals pick.

Who do they predict with everybody on the board for the Bengals?

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS — TE KYLE PITTS, FLORIDA

More and more of the Cincinnati Sports Media I follow on-line and saying it WON'T be Pitts. I'd think they have a better insight into the teams thinking than some sports writer in LA or New York City....

It's not going to be Pitts, and while Pitts might be a great player we all know the Bengals don't operate that poorly. It's literally going to be 1 of 3 options; Swallows, Chase, or Trade down, It's just that simple.

[Jmble]

PFF's latest Mock Draft today...

They predict QB,QB,QB,QB before the Bengals pick.

Who do they predict with everybody on the board for the Bengals?

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS — TE KYLE PITTS, FLORIDA

More and more of the Cincinnati Sports Media I follow on-line and saying it WON'T be Pitts. I'd think they have a better insight into the teams thinking than some sports writer in LA or New York City....

I hope you're right but I'd remind you that PFF is headquartered in Cincinnati.

[Bengals1]

I hope you're right but I'd remind you that PFF is headquartered in Cincinnati.

Ahhh..... I did not know that.

[Joe Bananas]

I hope you're right but I'd remind you that PFF is headquartered in Cincinnati.

Ahhh..... I did not know that.

Dehner is in more with people who operate the Bengals more than the PFF guys and Dehner flat said its NOT going to be Pitts plain and simple, even if Sewell and Chase are gone.

[Bengals1]

I want to make something perfectly clear...

I can live with Chase at #5 if we get a Peckerwood or Slater or an Aloe-Vera Tucker etc... in the second round. Another O-Lineman in the 4th or 5th round wouldn't be a bad idea either.

I just worry, due to the way the draft has fallen for us before, that if we pass on Penile at 5 there'll be a run on O-Linemen late in the 1st round and we'll be left with our Peckerwood in our hands in the second round....so to speak.

I'd much rather secure Swallow and see who's left at WR in the second is all....

[4256 Hits]

Seems Eagles traded pick because they think the Bengals are taking Chase at 5 so wouldn't be their when they would have picked at 6.

The Eagles worked exclusively with the Dolphins, and Roseman had to keep the trade under wraps in the two-plus weeks in between to allow for the bang-bang nature of how it eventually would go down. And with the Eagles believing there is a pretty good chance the Bengals will take LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase at five (we mentioned in our mock this week that that Joe Burrow has given Cincinnati’s brass a glowing recommendation), Philly felt comfortable with the difference in talent between six and 12—and also operated with the knowledge that it’d be hard to get a future first (this being Miami’s slotted No. 1 in 2022) in exchange for moving down closer to the draft, particularly if it looked like the top four picks would be QBs.