A couple surprising omissions (at the bottom), but his reasoning makes sense.
From Paul Dehner Jr
CINCINNATI – For years, I’ve done my own unscientific measurement of Bengals player value based on the popular baseball Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric.
The point in this particular exercise is never about proving individual value across others in the league. No, this comes back to point out which players are most valuable to this specific edition of the Bengals roster.
That’s not as easy as going back to the obvious most talented overall players, though, that’s certainly an important part of the equation. This is about win gains above their actual replacement on this team. Thus why other factors combine to be more important. How big of a dropoff is there in their replacement? How does this staff utilize their position? What is the ripple effect on the rest of the roster if they are injured or can’t play?
The WAR metric combines all those into one critical ranking before the annual attrition of a football season begins: Who can the Bengals least afford to lose?
On just about every team the quarterback will lead the way. In fact, you’d have a hard time finding any team whose quarterback wouldn’t rank at the top. But the names popping up after Joe Burrow might surprise you.
1. Joe Burrow (3.5)
Why: The quarterback will always lead the way and anybody who watched the three-game experiment of Ryan Finley last year might think the WAR number should be higher. Finley theoretically should have gained some comfort from last year’s experience even if it went poorly. We still don’t know how Burrow will look other than he will be a rookie – even if highly touted and lauded for his grasp of the game – with no offseason and minimal practices to prepare.
2. A.J. Green (2.0)
Why: He may be 32 and over-discussed due to controversy over his contractual status this offseason, but he’s still the engine of the offense. Without a true No. 1 receiver, you end up in a similar position as last season where the offense doesn’t fit together correctly. You would fast-track the development of Tee Higgins and rely on increased snaps from John Ross, which has proven problematic given his injury history and on-field inconsistency. Plus, the combination of Tyler Boyd in the slot and Green on the outside is really the primary weapon of this passing attack. Green must attract the double teams to free up the rest of the offense.
3. D.J. Reader (1.5)
Why: The Bengals paid him $14M per year as the top free-agent priority for a reason. His wiggle as a pass rusher matched with his dominance against the run makes everyone better up front and their defense will be dependent on it. Also, they are counting on his presence to help keep double teams off Geno Atkins and get him back to some semblance of his younger form as his production has faded into his 30s. Without Reader, you rely on Josh Tupou and Renell Wren, who have shown glimpses – Tupou more than Wren – but are ill-equipped to have the big-picture impact of Reader.
4. Tyler Boyd (1.5)
Consider this stat line: 98 receptions, 1,240 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Those would be Boyd’s 2018 full-season stats if the first half extrapolated out over 16 games. Why is that relevant? That’s the last time Boyd played alongside Green. He consistently lived in one-on-ones in the slot and destroyed everything in his path. He’s been forced ever since to take on those double teams and extra attention from the defense as the primary weapon in the passing game. He’s still put up quality numbers, but for those thinking Green’s presence would take away from Boyd’s numbers, they only need to look back to what happened at the beginning of that season. Keeping the combo together makes Boyd – and this offense – significantly more dangerous. There also is nobody on this team with slot skills quite at his level, so you would be probably giving Ross or Alex Erickson the job of filling his role.
5. Geno Atkins (1.5)
Yes, Atkins’ production has gradually diminished each of the last four seasons. He’s losing the battle with Father Time. But he’s still the closest thing this team has to a dynamic three-technique. His pass-rush productivity may be down by his standards, but was still top 20 among interior defenders last year. They don’t have anyone else with even half his stats, even if you factored in increased opportunity. They desperately need Atkins to not only be more like his younger self, but even just the lesser version he’s been the past two seasons is a dramatic difference from everyone else on the roster.
6. Jessie Bates III (1.0)
The Bengals added Vonn Bell, kept Shawn Williams and enjoy a luxury of depth at the position. Well, sort of. Bell and Williams fit as box safeties, but Bates would be the only safety on the team who excels ranging over the top, particularly in single-high concepts. His ball-tracking and anticipation skills are unmatched on this roster and he’s part of the young, future core of the defense. They would struggle to replace his presence.
7. Germaine Pratt (1.0)
Will Pratt take the second-year jump and establish himself as a starting-level linebacker this season? Maybe. Hard to say for sure. We do know this: He’s the best shot they have of finding a consistent three-down linebacker for 2020. If Pratt misses time, you are turning to a trio of rookies in Logan Wilson, Akeem Davis-Gaither and Markus Bailey along with a run-stopping specialist in Josh Bynes. Without Pratt at the center of this group – and hopefully performing as he did the final quarter of last season – you are back to the major problems that contributed to last year’s defensive disaster.
8. Michael Jordan (0.5)
Jordan and Pratt fall into the same category of second-year players counted on to take a jump and there’s little insurance in case they don’t. At least in the case of Jordan, projected as the starting left guard next to 2019 draft class teammate Jonah Williams, the Bengals could find experience if he goes down moving Trey Hopkins to guard and Billy Price take over at center. Otherwise, some combination of Alex Redmond or rookie Hakeem Adeniji would be asked to fill the void. You could put Xavier Sua-Filo into this spot as well, but given how much the Bengals hope Jordan turns into a powerful force in their offense this year, I’m listing him.
9. Mackensie Alexander (0.5)
I’d argue Alexander was the best free-agent signing the Bengals made during their spending spree, at least through the lens of value. He’s excelled as a slot corner for the Vikings and getting him at $4M was dynamite. Here’s the thing, without him this year, they don’t have much available to fill in at slot. The dropoff would be significant. We saw how much the defense settled down last year when Darqueze Dennard returned from PUP at the midway point. That’s because there wasn’t much dynamic – or even competent – slot play behind him. That’s still the case. The Bengals would likely move Darius Phillips into the slot, but he only played 13 of his 104 snaps there last season and the position hasn’t suited him well since the team has attempted to switch him in there since drafting him in 2018.
10. Sam Hubbard (0.5)
You could make a case for Hubbard or Carlos Dunlap here, but with Carl Lawson available to fill in extra snaps it counteracts some of the impact if they were lost. But Hubbard has really become the energy of the defense with his relentless play speed and do-it-all nature. He’s really the leader of that side and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a captain C on his chest this season.
Notable omissions
Carlos Dunlap
As mentioned above, you could easily put Dunlap on here, but Hubbard has proven more consistent and more of a reliable leader for the entire group. Dunlap is still an absolute beast when he wants to be, as seen by his performance the second half of last season, and the Bengals will need all of that to stay relevant defensively.
Joe Mixon
He may be their most talented player, but we must dive into running back value here. How many more wins would they have with Mixon compared to a hybrid of Giovani Bernard and Trayveon Williams? We’ve written and discussed this so much it seems silly to dive back into it here, but the offensive line and scheme would have a much larger effect on the outcome of games rather than if they were handing it to Mixon or Bernard or Williams.
William Jackson III
Really, the exclusion of Jackson along with Trae Waynes connects with the quality play of Phillips in a small sample size last year as well as another quality backup in Leshaun Sims, signed as a free agent from Tennessee. Both are high upside backups and while Jackson possesses skill and potential aplenty, he’s endured his own issues with inconsistency.
Jonah Williams
You could argue it won’t take long for him to be on this list, but we still don’t know how good Williams is right now. Maybe he instantly looks like the real deal at left tackle. For now, however, I have to see it. Plus, we saw Fred Johnson look more than serviceable in his small sample size at left tackle last year.
Xavier Su’a-Filo
Mentioned in the Michael Jordan section, the lack of depth on the interior line is scary right now.