Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

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Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Stadiumite » August 26th, 2017, 3:41 pm

Here we go. My season prediction based on a path to getting to 11 wins. I go to 11 because it would be very unusual to miss the playoffs with that record.

I group the teams on the schedule as "High", "Medium", and "Low". This is based on the preseason ESPN power rankings. Top 10 teams are High. 11 thru 20 are Medium. The bottom 12 are Low.

We have 4 home games against "Low" teams. Win them all. 4-0 (Ravens, Bills, Browns, Bears)
We have 3 road games against "Low" teams. I think we can afford to drop one. 6-1 (Jags, Ravens, Browns. Let's say the loss is to Cleveland just for fun.)

We have 3 home games against "Medium" teams. You have to win them. 9-1 ( Texans, Colts, Lions)
We have 2 road games against "Medium" teams. Split them, and we'll be O.K. 10-2 (Titans, Vikings. Let's say the loss is to the Titans)

We have just 1 home game against a "High" team. You've got to win it. 11-2 (Steelers)
We have 3 road games against "High" teams. We can afford to lose them all and still get to 11 wins. (Steelers, Packers, Broncos)

When I sort this out by the order of the schedule, it puts us at 5-5 through 10 games, winning 6 in a row down the stretch. Unfortunately, that looks a lot like this analysis looked last year. I guess its a good thing that the weaker part of the schedule is toward the end. Just 2 road games in the last 6.

Of course, this is all just another way of stating the obvious. Win all your home games, beat weak teams on the road, and you'll be O.K.
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Bengals1 » August 26th, 2017, 5:05 pm

I can almost taste Mag's beer now.... 8-)
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby skycruiser » August 28th, 2017, 8:08 am

I agree. the path to 11 is pretty clear barring an unforseen injury. count me in as cautiously optimistic
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Deadcat » August 28th, 2017, 8:28 am

Injury....or the NFL suspending our most talented players to keep a small market team from competing.
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Bengals1 » August 28th, 2017, 11:08 am

Deadcat wrote:Injury....or the NFL suspending our most talented players to keep a small market team from competing.


What was our bet again...?
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Deadcat » August 28th, 2017, 11:23 am

It was low. You're losing, dude!
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Bengals1 » August 28th, 2017, 11:31 am

Deadcat wrote:It was low. You're losing, dude!



No, I know it was 5 games but was the actual bet...?
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby orange_black » August 28th, 2017, 1:35 pm

19-0 bitches
WHODEY BITC... i mean... PEOPLE!!!!
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby stripesincarolina » September 17th, 2017, 8:56 pm

Stadiumite wrote:Here we go. My season prediction based on a path to getting to 11 wins. I go to 11 because it would be very unusual to miss the playoffs with that record.

I group the teams on the schedule as "High", "Medium", and "Low". This is based on the preseason ESPN power rankings. Top 10 teams are High. 11 thru 20 are Medium. The bottom 12 are Low.

We have 4 home games against "Low" teams. Win them all. 4-0 (Ravens, Bills, Browns, Bears)
We have 3 road games against "Low" teams. I think we can afford to drop one. 6-1 (Jags, Ravens, Browns. Let's say the loss is to Cleveland just for fun.)

We have 3 home games against "Medium" teams. You have to win them. 9-1 ( Texans, Colts, Lions)
We have 2 road games against "Medium" teams. Split them, and we'll be O.K. 10-2 (Titans, Vikings. Let's say the loss is to the Titans)

We have just 1 home game against a "High" team. You've got to win it. 11-2 (Steelers)
We have 3 road games against "High" teams. We can afford to lose them all and still get to 11 wins. (Steelers, Packers, Broncos)

When I sort this out by the order of the schedule, it puts us at 5-5 through 10 games, winning 6 in a row down the stretch. Unfortunately, that looks a lot like this analysis looked last year. I guess its a good thing that the weaker part of the schedule is toward the end. Just 2 road games in the last 6.

Of course, this is all just another way of stating the obvious. Win all your home games, beat weak teams on the road, and you'll be O.K.


This is such a futile exercise, but whatever. I thought this was a reasonable assessment to the season when Mite wrote this up. But now we have lost 1 of his must win to a low home team games and also a must win to a home medium team. That means at most 9 wins using his math unless we can pick up a game somewhere. That MUST be this week against the Packers. That would get us to 10 wins assuming everything else Mite predicted comes true.

I think the bigger issue right now is the powerhouse division out in the AFC West. That division could easily send 3 teams to the playoffs this year. And we are already hosed in our own division unless we beat the Ravens and likely find a way to sweep the Browns and Steelers.

So all in all.....I'll be searching for a team to follow in the playoffs that isn't the Bengals.
NEW.COACH.NOW
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Re: Getting to 11 wins. 2017 edition

Postby Bengals1 » September 17th, 2017, 11:13 pm

I predict we finish behind the Browns. :oops:
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